08. Rules of thumb for estimating baseline demographic data

Instructions

Learning outcome

After completing the activity, you are expected to know the rules of thumb for estimating demographic data (often referred to as ‘standard populations’) even in the absence of more detailed data. They are essential in order to prepare any health intervention.

Activity

Please read pages 6-8 and 22-23 in the book chapter: Public Health in Humanitarian Action.

Introduction

The text suggests rules of thumb for the baseline situation as follows:

Metric

Point estimate

Range

CRUDE DEATH RATE (CDR)

1% per year

95% of countries fall within the range 1± o.5% in both HMLICs

CRUDE BIRTH RATE (CBR)

1-4% per year

95% of countries conform to the pattern: 1% in HICs,

2% in MICs, 4% in LICs. Some sub-Saharan African countries are between 4-5%

% of POPULATION WHO ARE CHILDREN AGED 0-4

5-20%

5 x the CBR (under five mortality has decreased to below 10% in most countries. LICs with very high CBR also have U5M 10-15%.

% of POPULATION WHO ARE WOMEN of REPRODUCTIVE AGE (15-49)

25% of total population

95% of all countries fall within the range of 20-30%

% of POPULATION AGED 60+

3-30%

Most LICs will be in the range below 10%, MICs 10-20%, and HICs above 20%

Take quiz

Question 11 pts

You are a supply chain manager, and you have arrived in a camp of refugees of about 12,000 people in an sub-Saharan African country. How many deaths would you expect in this camp in a year, if the health situation is similar to surrounding countries?

Question 21 pts

The camp manager tells you that last year there 120 women in the camp gave birth, and they all received birthing kits, so now he would like some more. What would your reaction be?

Question 30 pts

The camp manager also would like to vaccinate all children aged 6-59 months against measles, since they have not yet been vaccinated. Approximately how many doses would you order for the first round of vaccination (allow around 10% for wastage)?